The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review just released some polling data on PA 04 -- a suburban Pittsburgh district that features incumbent Republican Melissa Hart and Democratic challenger Jason Altmire. The results were somewhat surprising, giving Hart only a 4% lead, with 11% undecided.

This week I hypothesized that one reason that second- and third-tier districts show soft GOP leads was because GOP candidates had yet to unload their expansive war chests. Accordingly, voters were still "floating" with the national news media and their assessment of the mood. This district would be an archetypical example if this hypothesis is true. Hart, as of 10/1, had more than $1.1 million in the bank, compared to Altmire's $275 K. By that date, she had only spent $763 K. According to the theory I offered: when she unloads that war chest, these numbers will move in her direction.

The internals of the poll are consistent with this "floating" hypothesis. The last paragraph is the the tip-off: For Altmire, an equal number of those surveyed -- 26 percent -- were aware of his name with a favorable impression as were those who had not heard of him. Thirty-one percent knew his name but had no opinion of him, while 18 percent were aware and felt unfavorably toward him.

It seems that Altmire's support does not seem to reflect genuine pro-Altmire sentiment, but rather a general political mood . Hart can, and will, spend $2 million in all to define both him and herself -- setting herself apart from what the district is upset about, and casting Altmire as an unacceptable alternative to what frustrates the voters. And Altmire lacks the cash to respond.

This poll will probably feed the "a wave is a'comin'" storyline -- but this hypothesis is clearly underdetermined. These results are entirely consistent with what I theorized earlier this week -- probably more so than the "wave" hypothesis, given Altmire's poor name ID numbers.

If we see a Hart lead of 4% of less after she has spent her money, then the GOP should worry about this district.

Nevertheless -- this poll is a sign that the GOP is going to have to spend money to defend its "outer-rim" districts: PA 04, WY AL, MN 01, etc. I think money will save all of them, but money is what is needed. That is the price they must pay for their unpopularity.

Footnote: I am not a pollster, but it struck me as very peculiar that the Trib would commission a poll for last weekend in Pittsburgh. On Saturday, Pitt played Rutgers at Heinz Field. On Sunday, the Steelers played the Falcons. How many men do you think answered the phone over the weekend? If I was back in my dear hometown district (or, should I say, "hometahn district"), I know that I would have hung up right quick (a head counter for the local Alderman actually showed up at my door during the 2nd Quarter of the Steelers game -- and I don't think I have ever been so quick to tell somebody "No thank you!"). I can't help but wonder: is this sample representative of the 4th? I doubt that it is. The 4th was watching Panther and Steeler football (a bad, bad, bad weekend, I must say...). Does that help one candidate or another? My sense is that it helps Altmire. Most of the voting population of the 4th is the northern suburbs in Allegheny and Butler Counties -- and football fans there tend to be white men, i.e. anti-tax Republican voters.