Commenting on the new University of Iowa poll, the Weekly Standard's "Richelieu" makes a nice point:
The big news in the Iowa poll is a statistical tie between Hillary Rodham Clinton at 29 percent and Barack Obama at 27 percent. The same wide-sample discount mentioned above applies to these Democratic numbers as well, but the fact is Hillary has nothing like a lock on Iowa. Nonetheless, the national media continue to crown HRC as the nominee - which is not so bad for Obama, because all this Hillary hype now merely cranks the guillotine blade higher and higher into the air should she lose Iowa. That would open the windows of Heaven to another great flood. In this new poll, it looks as if some of Edwards's support is melting off to Obama. I've mentioned this before, but it's worth saying again. If the combined Edwards/Richardson/Biden vote - 32 percent in this poll - declines in the final stretch to, say, 21 percent, where does that lost 11 percent of the caucus vote go? I think it breaks two to one or better to Obama. And if that's correct, this poll approximately would read: HRC 32 percent, Obama 35 percent.
I would only quibble with the "two to one" argument, which, if you're an Obama fan, might be wishful thinking. The anti-Hillary logic behind Richelieu's prediction there, while sound, might not hold up on caucus day. The voters who are currently in the Edwards/Richardson/Biden camp I wouldn't exactly call a unified bunch, as there's much which separates an Edwards supporter from a Biden/Richardson supporter. In other words, the urge to win the White House ("electability") might prove just strong enough to trump the "Anyone But Hillary" card.
Still, as Richelieu says, the big story from the UofI poll is that there's plenty of game left to play.
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