Good news for Democrats in Connecticut 5. The Hartford Courant has a new poll showing Republican incumbent Nancy Johnson now trailing Chris Murphy 46% - 42%. From RCP's updated analysis on this race:
Today's Hartford Courant poll from the University of Connecticut shows Democratic challenger Chris Murphy ahead by 4 points, 46% - 42%. The worst news for Johnson from the Courant story is this: Geographically, the UConn poll also shows Johnson in trouble in one crucial area of the district - the affluent, educated Farmington Valley suburbs of Avon, Canton, Simsbury and Farmington. In her past two elections, Johnson has racked up tallies of 60 percent or more in these towns. But the UConn poll apparently shows that Johnson's support there has been cut roughly in half, with Murphy leading among likely Farmington Valley voters by 52 percent to 36 percent.
This is a potentially ominous sign for Johnson, as she will need closer to half the vote in the affluent Farmington Valley suburbs as opposed to a third if she hopes to weather the storm this year. These affluent, educated voters now moving towards Murphy are Republican-leaning voters who are almost definitely upset with the present course in Iraq and are taking it out on Nancy Johnson.
Furthermore, this poll cuts against some of the other evidence that we have seen from Connecticut and could be part of a little bit of momentum Lamont has picked up the last week. The three Connecticut House districts had appeared to be shifting away from the Democrats since August and Lamont's win, but the increased level of negative news out of Iraq may be giving Murphy a critical push at the end, which is also liable to be felt in CT-2 and CT-4.
This race is now ranked #25 on RCP's House list and is considered a Toss Up.
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